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| Nicolas Sarkozy, former head of the ‘Les Republicains’ political party and candidate for the French center-right presidential primary, attends a campaign rallay in Nimes, southern France, November 18, 2016 REUTERS/Jean-Paul Pelissier |
By Simon Carraud | PARIS
Conservative
presidential hopefuls in France face the judgement of voters in a primary race
on Sunday and the victor looks likely to win the presidency in next spring’s
election against a resurgenet far-right.
With the French
left in disarray under the deeply unpopular President Francois Hollande,
opinion polls suggest that the centre-right presidential nominee will meet and
defeat the National Front’s eurosceptic, anti-immigration leader Marine Le Pen
in a runoff for the elysee palace next year.
Even so, after
Britain’s shock “Brexit” vote and Donald Trump’s surprise U.S. election win,
the French presidential vote is shaping up to be another test of strength
between weakened mainstream parties and rising populist forces.
Former prime minister
Alain Juppe, a moderate conservative, had appreared firmly on track to win the
nomination of Les Republicains party. But over the apst week the contest has
been transformed into a nail-biting three-horse race.
Juppe has lost
his lead in opinion polls to a last-minute surge by another former premier,
Francois Fillon. Latest surveys show the two now running neck-and neck with
former president Nicolas Sarkozy.
Fillon promises
to do away with the 35-hour working week, cut half a million public sector jobs
and slash the cost of government – though sells in a country where proposals
for market-oriented reform often arouse protests.
“I’m tagged with
a liberal label as one would once, in the Middle Ages, paint crosses on the
doors of lepers,” Fillon told a rally in Paris on Friday, drawing laughter.
“But I’m just a
pragmatist.”
DOWN TO THE WIRE
For weeks, the
bruising campaign battle focused on the duel between Juppe and Sarkozy. The two
men present very different policy platforms to counter the populist tsunami
that threatens mainstream parties in Europe.
Against a
backdrop of deadly militant attacks on home soil and Europe’s migrant crisis,
Sarkozy, 61, styles himself as the voice of France’s “silent majority”.
He vows to ban
the Muslim veil from public universities and burkinis from beaches and wants to
renegotiate EU treaties, reining in the powers of the European Commission and
reforming the Schengen free-travel zone.
At a rally in the
southern city of Nimes on Friday he warned of a France whose “identity and
unity are threatened”.
“Political Islam
is doing battle against our values. There’s no room for compromise,“ he said,
speaking in a region that has produced one of the far-right’s two national
Assembly lawmakers.
Juppe, 71, has
sought to galvanize the political centre-right, rejecting the “suicidal”
identity politics of Sarkozy that he says will deepen rifts between France’s
secular state and religious minorities.
But Juppe has
struggled to rouse the passions of voters and all the momentum was against him
on the eve of the vote.
“France needs
far-reaching and radical reforms,” Juppe told supporters in the northern city
of Lille. “But be careful of going too war, we must remain creadible.”
An admirer of
late Britsh Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, Fillon headed Sarkozy’s
conservative government between 2007 and 2012. He promises cost-cutting on a
scale to which his rivals do not dare commit in a country with one of Europe’s
highest public spending levels.
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French politician
Francois Fillon, member of the conservative Les Republicains political party,
attends a final rally ahead of Sunday’s first round of vote to choose the
conservative candidate for France’s presidential election in Paris, France,
November 18, 2016 REUTERS/Charles Platiau
|
Much will depend
on turnout at the 10,228 polling stations. It is the first centre-right primary
in which anyone who pays 2 euros and signs a paper of allegiance to the party’s
values can vote.
Juppe needs a
high turnout beyond core party supporters to win. A runoff will be held on Nov.
27 if, as expected, none of the seven candidates wins more than 50 percent of
the vote.
An Ifop-Fiducial
surver on Thursday forecast an evenly split vote if Juppe and Fillon go
head-to-head in a second round. Fillon would comfortably beat Sarkozy, the
surver showed.
Should Sarkozy or
Fillon emerge as her conservative opponent, polls and analysts suggest, Le Pen’s
electoral prospects would improve.
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